Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

TAMIL NADU, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
0.0
2019 · 0 of 8
Incumbents contesting
20.51
8 of 39 seats
First-time winners
41.03
16 new faces
Turncoats
7
3 won · strike rate 42.86%
Vs previous
-13.64pp
From 13.64% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    0.0%
  2. 2014
    13.64%
  3. 2009
    43.48%
  4. 2004
    76.47%
  5. 1999
    51.72%
  6. 1998
    24.14%
  7. 1996
    26.09%
  8. 1991
    96.15%
  9. 1989
    88.89%
  10. 1984
    55.0%
  11. 1980
    42.11%
  12. 1977
    60.0%
  13. 1971
    76.47%
  14. 1967
    61.54%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    41.03%
  2. 2014
    76.92%
  3. 2009
    51.28%
  4. 2004
    41.03%
  5. 1999
    41.03%
  6. 1998
    56.41%
  7. 1996
    48.72%
  8. 1991
    35.9%
  9. 1989
    28.21%
  10. 1984
    64.1%
  11. 1980
    66.67%
  12. 1977
    64.1%
  13. 1971
    53.85%
  14. 1967
    74.36%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 7 turncoats3 won (42.86%)
2014 13 turncoats2 won (15.38%)
2009 8 turncoats1 won (12.5%)
2004 7 turncoats4 won (57.14%)
1999 11 turncoats1 won (9.09%)
1998 3 turncoats1 won (33.33%)
1996 19 turncoats10 won (52.63%)
1991 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1989 3 turncoats1 won (33.33%)
1984 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 7 turncoats2 won (28.57%)
1977 6 turncoats2 won (33.33%)
1971 9 turncoats1 won (11.11%)
1967 3 turncoats2 won (66.67%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 8 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
2014 22 contesting3 won · 13.64% strike rate
2009 23 contesting10 won · 43.48% strike rate
2004 17 contesting13 won · 76.47% strike rate
1999 29 contesting15 won · 51.72% strike rate
1998 29 contesting7 won · 24.14% strike rate
1996 23 contesting6 won · 26.09% strike rate
1991 26 contesting25 won · 96.15% strike rate
1989 27 contesting24 won · 88.89% strike rate
1984 20 contesting11 won · 55.0% strike rate
1980 19 contesting8 won · 42.11% strike rate
1977 15 contesting9 won · 60.0% strike rate
1971 17 contesting13 won · 76.47% strike rate
1967 13 contesting8 won · 61.54% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 0.0% is below the historical average of 47.7%.

    0.0% vs avg 47.7%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 2019 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 8).

    Lowest: 2019 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1991 with a 96.15% re-election rate (25 of 26).

    Highest: 1991 at 96.15%

  4. 16 winners in 2019 (41.03%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    16 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1996 with 19 turncoats, of whom 10 won (52.63% strike rate).

    Peak: 19 turncoats in 1996
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