Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

DELHI, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
100.0
2019 · 5 of 5
Incumbents contesting
71.43
5 of 7 seats
First-time winners
28.57
2 new faces
Turncoats
1
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
+100.0pp
From 0.0% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    100.0%
  2. 2014
    0.0%
  3. 2009
    100.0%
  4. 2004
    16.67%
  5. 1999
    80.0%
  6. 1998
    85.71%
  7. 1996
    25.0%
  8. 1991
    42.86%
  9. 1989
    50.0%
  10. 1984
    100.0%
  11. 1980
    14.29%
  12. 1977
    14.29%
  13. 1971
    16.67%
  14. 1967
    33.33%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    28.57%
  2. 2014
    85.71%
  3. 2009
    28.57%
  4. 2004
    14.29%
  5. 1999
    14.29%
  6. 1998
    0.0%
  7. 1996
    42.86%
  8. 1991
    28.57%
  9. 1989
    28.57%
  10. 1984
    42.86%
  11. 1980
    57.14%
  12. 1977
    57.14%
  13. 1971
    57.14%
  14. 1967
    57.14%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2009 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2004 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1999 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1998 3 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1996 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1991 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1989 1 turncoats1 won (100.0%)
1984 4 turncoats1 won (25.0%)
1980 12 turncoats1 won (8.33%)
1977 3 turncoats3 won (100.0%)
1971 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1967 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 5 contesting5 won · 100.0% strike rate
2014 7 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
2009 4 contesting4 won · 100.0% strike rate
2004 6 contesting1 won · 16.67% strike rate
1999 5 contesting4 won · 80.0% strike rate
1998 7 contesting6 won · 85.71% strike rate
1996 4 contesting1 won · 25.0% strike rate
1991 7 contesting3 won · 42.86% strike rate
1989 4 contesting2 won · 50.0% strike rate
1984 2 contesting2 won · 100.0% strike rate
1980 7 contesting1 won · 14.29% strike rate
1977 7 contesting1 won · 14.29% strike rate
1971 6 contesting1 won · 16.67% strike rate
1967 3 contesting1 won · 33.33% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 100.0% is above the historical average of 45.3%.

    100.0% vs avg 45.3%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 2014 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 7).

    Lowest: 2014 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 2019 with a 100.0% re-election rate (5 of 5).

    Highest: 2019 at 100.0%

  4. 2 winners in 2019 (28.57%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    2 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 12 turncoats, of whom 1 won (8.33% strike rate).

    Peak: 12 turncoats in 1980
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